PSV’s big chance came early. In the 19th minute Ivan Perisic stepped up from the spot, but Vandevoordt read it and saved, one of five stops on his night. Just before that, VAR had checked and not awarded a penalty to PSV at 16 minutes, a small let-off for Leipzig.

The winner arrived on 75 minutes, and it was worth the wait. Gruda found space to his left side after a corner situation and smashed home with his left foot. The shot carried a modest xG of 0.02 (0.024), which tells you how cleanly he struck it and how well he picked his spot.

Leipzig managed the remaining minutes sensibly, using fresh legs and clearances to limit PSV to half openings. Referee Nick Walsh booked Antonio Nusa and Armando Obispo late on, adding to Sergiño Dest’s first-half yellow. Matěj Kovář also stood tall, making six saves to keep PSV in it, but the visitors could not find a late equaliser.

The numbers behind 1-0

Possession leaned PSV’s way at 57% to Leipzig’s 43%, yet chance quality told a different story. On Sofascore’s model, expected goals read 2.10 for Leipzig and 1.40 for PSV. Leipzig also led shots 19-11 and shots on target 7-5, making more of their attacking phases.

Inside the box, Leipzig were more present, with 15 shots in the area to PSV’s 8 and 33 touches in the opposition box to 23. They created three big chances to PSV’s two, though both sides were guilty of misses. Leipzig’s second-half push showed up in xG on target too, 1.41 to 0.15 after the break.

Errors mattered. PSV were charged with three errors leading to a shot, while Leipzig had none. Despite PSV’s 12 corners to Leipzig’s 6 and more passes overall (466 to 350), the hosts stitched together the more dangerous moments. Team average Sofascore Rating reflected that balance, 7.10 for Leipzig versus 7.06 for PSV.

Duels, pressing and set plays

PSV were stronger in the individual battles. They won 62% of all duels, including a commanding 72% in the air (23 of 32). On the ground they edged it too, taking 57% of ground duels. Tackles won also favoured PSV 63% to 50% and total tackles were 19-10.

Yet Leipzig found control through structure and territory. They completed more final-third actions at a higher clip, going 84 of 116 in the final-third phase (72%) versus PSV’s 71 of 103 (69%). They also stayed disciplined with the line, catching PSV offside six times while not straying off themselves even once.

Set pieces and transitions were the home side’s lever. The decisive goal followed a corner situation, and Leipzig’s 26 clearances helped them reset repeatedly. With ball recoveries close (53 for PSV and 46 for Leipzig), those clearances and fast restarts made PSV build again and again, without finding the breakthrough.

MVP spotlight: Brajan Gruda

Brajan Gruda delivered the decisive moment and much more en route to a Sofascore Rating of 9. He scored the winner in the 75th minute and constantly asked questions between the lines. Across 76 minutes he fired four shots, put three on target and created three chances with three key passes.

His ball-carry threat stood out. Gruda made 16 carries for 185.4 meters, with 124.4 meters of progressive distance and seven progressive carries. He completed 21 of 24 passes, including a perfect three of three long balls, and logged an xG of 0.24 with 0.63 xGOT, underlining the quality of his looks.

The supporting cast matters too. Matěj Kovář kept PSV in contention with six saves and 1.06 goals prevented (Sofascore Rating 8.8), while Maarten Vandevoordt’s five saves included that huge penalty stop and 1.17 goals prevented (8.6). Ridle Baku was influential down the right for Leipzig, posting 0.67 xA and an 8.0 rating.

Shapes, roles and standout performers